By JIM
YARDLEYMAY
The New
York Times
ATHENS -
This time, there are no predictions of doom, no anguished fretting out of
Washington or Berlin that Greek national elections could unravel the European
economic order.
The dynamics seem reversed as Greeks return
to the polls this weekend for European parliamentary elections. The balloting,
from Thursday through Sunday, is supposed to represent another developmental
step in the broader European political project, but an expected protest vote
across Europe means that the impact may be greater on national politics.
In Greece, the vote has become a de facto
referendum on the governing coalition and a test of whether ordinary citizens
believe the government’s assertion that the country is finally on the upswing.
Polls are showing the left-wing opposition party, Syriza, with a slight
advantage over New Democracy, the center-right party that leads the government.
“If the margin is large, on the order of 5
percent or more, this could be destabilizing,” said Harry Papasotiriou, a
political science professor at Panteion University in Athens, adding that
voters may use the European parliamentary races to send a message to the Greek
government. “People can vent their emotions in a protest vote.”
European leaders, concerned with political
stability in Greece, are watching warily. The Greek stock and bond markets have
wobbled in recent days amid concerns that a subpar showing by New Democracy
could bring pressure for new national elections, which are not scheduled until
2016.
Greek politics is still defined by the
bailout from the so-called troika of foreign creditors: the European Central
Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission. The bailout
prevented the country from going bankrupt but inflicted punishing terms that
have contributed to record unemployment.
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has argued
that Greece is now clawing its way toward recovery, with some economists
forecasting a return to growth by the end of the year. On the campaign trail,
New Democracy leaders say Greece must maintain political stability or the sacrifices
made during the bailout - and the seeds of recovery - could be jeopardized.
“Instability is bad for the economy,” warned
Health Minister Adonis Georgiadis, arguing that a Syriza victory could be
destabilizing. “You have to explain to people the consequences of their
choice.”
Two years ago, Syriza championed the
anti-austerity sentiment and threatened, if elected, to reject the terms of the
bailout - a worrying stance for European leaders. New Democracy narrowly won
and cobbled together an awkward coalition government with its Socialist rival,
Pasok, and a third party, Democratic Left. The rest of Europe exhaled.
Now, with Syriza in a tight race, the
party’s telegenic leader, Alexis Tsipras, is again framing the European
election as a referendum on the bailout agreement, brushing off talk of
possible political instability. Mr. Tsipras is running for a seat on the
European Commission, though analysts say he does not expect to win and is
instead trying to cultivate a leftist, anti-austerity movement across Europe.
His real goal is to win in Greece, where he says a Syriza victory would be a
no-confidence vote in the government and in New Democracy.
“We
are confident that the results in the European elections will show they are far
behind Syriza,” said Yiannis Milios, a top strategist and Syriza lawmaker, who
argues that the government’s economic program has punished ordinary people but
rewarded the wealthy. “We have the concentration of wealth in a few hands. We
have wage earners losing their rights.”
The shape of the election in Greece is
especially unpredictable because of the range of parties pushing starkly
different populist messages. Pasok, the party that dominated Greek politics for
decades, is trailing badly in the polls; many analysts believe it is in a death
spiral that could endanger the government coalition.
A new centrist party, To Potami, or “The
River,” has emerged in recent months, led by a popular television journalist,
Stavros Theodorakis. After a flurry of news media attention, To Potami has hit
a plateau in polls. But Mr. Theodorakis has tried to tap into the broad public
disgust with the established parties.
“The people have been exhausted from this
and do not listen anymore,” he said in an interview. “They are tired of these
dogmas.” The biggest wild card is Golden Dawn, the far-right party with an
anti-immigrant, neo-fascist ideology. Last year, the government led a sweeping
crackdown, labeling the group a criminal organization (rather than a political
party) and arresting its leader and five members of Parliament. The crackdown
was expected to prevent Golden Dawn from competing in the European elections -
except that this month Greece’s Supreme Court ruled that the party could.
With its angry, nationalist message, Golden
Dawn has tapped into the broad public fury over the country’s economic
collapse. Two years ago, it stunned the political establishment with a strong
fifth-place finish and has been polling in third or fourth place this time.
“It will be terrible if they end up being
the third party,” said Professor Papasotiriou, who also works for a think tank
linked to New Democracy. “It would be very bad for Greece.”
(Source: nytimes.com)
