With Greece just three
weeks away from the general election on Jan. 25, called after the country's politicians
failed to elect a president at the end of December, Athens is firmly back in
Europe's spotlight along with a serious discussion about whether Greece will
remain in the euro.
Syriza have opened up
a solid polling lead. Here's a chart from Oxford Economics:
It's not Syriza's
official policy to leave the euro, but a solid portion of the group are happy
that route, and others may join them - if pushed.
German politicians are
lining up to issue stern warnings to Greece that it won't allow any further
easing or assistance for struggling countries on Europe's periphery. So far
Michael Fuchs, a senior parliamentarian, and Wolfgang Schaeuble, finance
minister, have both cautioned against any deviation from the current austerity
and reform plans.
These are the same
politicians that mouthed off in 2012, and were more content with letting Greece
exit then. For now, the issue hasn't spread beyond the usual suspects in German
politics. There are three major reasons that could change, and Germany might
become less bothered by Grexit this time round:
1. It might become a
media and political issue. Angela Merkel's party has already lost some support
to Alternative fur Deutschland, Germany's anti-euro party. Since the European
Central Bank is likely to bring in quantitative easing early this year (which
many Germans also see as a sort of bailout of the south), the Greek issue may
get a lot of attention. That would put Chancellor Angela Merkel under more
pressure to oppose more concessions.
2. Greece may no
longer be a systemic risk for the eurozone. During the euro crisis, Greece
looked like the only country which might imminently leave the eurozone, but
that crisis sent the cost of borrowing for countries like Spain, Italy and
Portugal soaring too. There seemed to be a risk of contagion: If Greece left,
why not other countries? This time, while Greek bond yields have risen but the
other countries haven't. That might be taken as a signal that it's safe to be
tough with Syriza without putting other countries in danger.
3. They don't want to
set an example. If Syriza get some of the debt reduction that they want, Morgan
Stanley analysts suggest "Greece would become more like Portugal, with a
similar debt stock, although better composition." That's great for Athens,
but it's not clear why Lisbon would be happy. Such a move would embolden every
anti-austerity party in the continent to make their own demands.
(Πηγή: businessinsider.com)
