Not even during the
2012 European debt crisis has Greece's place in the Eurozone been more tenuous.
Greece will seek about 10 billion euros (US$11.3 billion) in short-term
financing as it tries to stave off a funding crunch.
As the possibility of
a Grexit looms, finance chiefs began talks at the G20 in Istanbul Monday to try
to force Greece and its creditors to strike a deal. The repercussions of a
Eurozone break-up could be catastrophic for both the European and global
economies. Here are three big questions and explanations on what happens if
Greece exits the Eurozone:
1. What will happen to the Euro?
Francs, lira and
deutsche marks could make a comeback. Former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman,
Alan Greenspan, thinks Greece pulling out of the Eurozone would spell the end
of the single currency.
Even without a
complete breakdown of the euro, a Greek exit will leave the European Central
Bank holding billions of dollars of Greek debt and few options. The euro could
face devaluation and leave Eurozone countries vulnerable to masses of investors
retreating to safer shores.
While Mr. Greenspan
thinks a Greek exit is inevitable and "the best strategy," others are
not so pessimistic about the Eurozone's chances. David Kotok, chairman and
chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors Inc., thinks the Eurozone is not
only strong enough to withstand a Greek exit, but will be better off without
the embattled Mediterranean nation dragging it further into debt. "[The]
Eurozone can withstand the loss and will be better after Grexit," said Mr.
Kotok. "Feeding more to a failed system of governance only exacerbates the
final cost."
2. What would it mean for the rest of Europe?
The longer it takes
for all parties to reach a deal, the more fears mount that a Greek exit will
send Europeans rushing to banks in droves to withdraw their savings. The
fragile Eurozone has already been facing declining consumer prices and news of
a Greek exit could lead international investors to liquidate their European
assets en masse. The scenario could create a cash-flow problem and deflationary
spiral thereafter.
Furthermore, if Greece
exits the Eurozone, investors will begin to view the weaker European economies
– Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and possibly Italy – as risks. European
countries will be forced to pay more to borrow money, and their equities will
be tainted, according to Charles Collyns, chief economist at the Institute of
International Finance.
If the Eurozone
remains intact, fragile European economies who have been looking to enter the
Eurozone can also expect their bids to be put on hold, as the EU will be in no
shape to take on further risk. "There is a meaningful risk that other
countries would join Greece in leaving the euro," UBS Group AG said.
"The euro is patently not an optimal currency union at the moment, which gives
economic momentum to the idea of a broader fragmentation."
3. How will it affect the world economy?
The European Union
accounts for about one-fifth of global trade. As the fallout from the crisis
spreads from Greece to the EU, onlookers fear that it won't stop there.
A slowdown in Europe
could lead to further shocks to the world energy market and damage to global
exports.
"This would be a
first-magnitude event that would certainly have a major set of stresses across
markets," Mr. Collyns said.
While the world economy
and the American economic engine, in particular, are stronger than they were
during the last Greek crisis in 2012, analysts fear that with interest rates
near zero, the global economy may not be strong enough to weather a Greek exit
and full-blown European crisis.
The potential Grexit
was already weighing on markets Monday. The major European stock indexes fell
while Greek banks plunged by more than 10% amid fears that deposit flight is
accelerating.
(Πηγή: business.financialpost.com)
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