It was more
or less impossible for Greek banks to open tomorrow, once the European Central
Bank announced it was turning off emergency lending to them.
And, to
state the obvious, banks that run out of cash are kaput. So for banks to
re-open, restrictions - known as capital controls - have to be put in place on
the amount depositors can take out.
When these
restrictions are announced, Greece will be half a step nearer to exit from the
euro - since a core rule of the eurozone is that there should be no
restrictions on the movement of money or capital.
Euro exit not inevitable
But
tumbling out of the euro would not be inevitable - as Cyprus shows: the Cypriot
government introduced limits on how much cash could be taken out of banks in
2013, and has since taken steps to mend its finances while remaining in the
euro.
The
temporary closure of banks in Greece, and the expected introduction of capital
controls, is however very bad news for Greece: Greek people will have less
money to spend and business less to invest; so an already weak economy will
probably return to deep recession.
As for the
impact on the rest of the eurozone, corporate treasurers and wealthy
individuals will wake up on Monday wondering if their money is safe in the
banks of other weaker eurozone economies. So in the coming weeks and months,
capital may seep out of the likes of Portugal, Spain and Italy - at potentially
significant long term cost to those economies.
Πηγή: bbc.com
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