As Greek
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras braces for another round of tough negotiations
with creditors, savers are still reluctant to bet their money that this year’s
talks will be less perilous for their country’s place in the euro area than
2015.
Deposits held by households and businesses
in Greek banks fell close to a 12-year-low of 120.9 billion euros ($131.3
billion) in November, bringing total losses to a record of more than 43 billion
euros, or 26.4 percent of total savings, in the last 12 months.
Savers’ distrust may derail the government’s
goal of lifting capital controls by the end of June. Reluctance to return
deposits held abroad or under mattresses back to banks hinders the ability of
lenders to provide credit to the economy, as the government struggles to lead
Greece out of recession in 2016 after a turbulent year which pushed the country
to the verge of leaving the euro area.
Separate data also released by the Bank of
Greece this week showed that private sector deleveraging picked up pace in
November, with outstanding loan balances dropping 2.2 percent from the previous
year. Credit contraction “returned with a vengeance in July, continued unabated
in August, slowed in September, yet picked-up speed again in October and
November,” Athens-based Pantelakis Securities’ analysts Paris Mantzavras and
George Grigoriou wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
Greek lenders cleared the hurdle of a
pan-European review in 2014 thanks to capital increases of more than 8 billion
euros and restructuring plans approved by the European Commission, only to see
their solvency put to the test in 2015 when Tsipras’s government revolted
against the terms attached to the country’s bailout lifeline. A stress test by
the European Central Bank uncovered a 14.4 billion euro-hole in their books,
amid increases in bad loans, subdued economic activity, expensive emergency
funding requirements and strict limits on capital transfers.
Private investors plugged most of the shortfall,
as bank stocks lost more than 93 percent of their value in 2015. The government
covered the rest with more than 5 billion euros of emergency loans from the
euro area’s crisis fund, while the valuation of the state’s equity portfolio in
Greek lenders was practically wiped out in November.
Even as Tsipras assures savers that the
country’s banks are now among the most adequately capitalized in Europe and
there’s no risk of haircut or re-denomination for deposits, Greeks are still
unwilling to bring their savings back, as the government remains at loggerheads
with creditors over demands for additional pension cuts. Pension savings is
among the main conditions for unlocking Greece’s next aid tranche and for
debt-relief talks between the country and its euro-area creditors to begin.
“We consider the recent successful
completion of the recapitalization of the Greek core banks as an important step
towards the restoration of the impaired depositor confidence,” Athens-based
Euroxx Securities’ analysts Yiannis Sinapis and Vangelis Karanikas wrote in a
note to clients on Thursday, adding that the process will be slow, subject to
political stability and the smooth implementation of the bailout agreement by
the government.
Πηγή: bloomberg.com
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