Time and again,
thousands of protesters have gathered in Syntagma Square in the heart of Athens
to march against Greece’s agony of recession and austerity.
Yet after five years
of economic crisis and countless demonstrations, Greeks will have the chance to
seize back their destiny next Sunday when they vote in a snap general election.
This was an
opportunity they were never supposed to have. Antonis Samaras, the prime
minister, had hoped to battle on and see through the austerity plan that should
reduce Greece’s public debt to a mere 110 per cent of national income by 2020.
But MPs inside the elegant sand-colored parliament on the eastern edge of
Syntagma Square failed to choose a new president last month, triggering an
election for Jan 25.
Mr Samaras, the leader
of the centre-Right New Democracy Party, has imposed punitive cuts in exchange
for a £190 billion bail-out from the European Union and the International
Monetary Fund. With all the passion of a man who believes he is performing the
Herculean task of restoring his country to health, the prime minister argues
that his policies are finally showing results.
Mr Samaras, the leader
of the centre-Right New Democracy Party, has imposed punitive cuts in exchange
for a £190 billion bail-out from the European Union and the International
Monetary Fund. With all the passion of a man who believes he is performing the
Herculean task of restoring his country to health, the prime minister argues
that his policies are finally showing results.
And that is when his
problems will begin. Mr Tsipras has promised to renegotiate the bail-out
package, including by writing-off “most” of the debt.
Yet he also wants to
keep Greece in the euro. Despite the trauma of the past five years, a solid
majority of about 70 per cent of Greeks wants to stay in the euro. If Mr
Tsipras wins this election, he will have triumphed by the simple device of
telling the voters exactly what they want to hear, namely that Greece can have
the euro without austerity.
“We call for the
restructuring of the debt so that it can be serviced in a socially viable way,”
said Mr Tsipras on television last Monday. Syriza’s plan “includes erasing most
of the debt”, he added.
But the rest of the EU
will have other ideas. The “troika” of lenders – the EU, the European Central
Bank and the IMF – will be deeply reluctant to go back to the drawing board and
renegotiate the Greek bail-out package yet again, particularly as they have
already stumped up no less than £190 billion for the country’s benefit.
They will be
particularly unwilling to start cancelling large chunks of debt. After all, if
Greece could win that particular favour, why not every other debtor?
So all the conditions
are in place for a clash between a new prime minister from the radical Left,
pledged to liberate his country from austerity, and the dour moneylenders of
Europe and the IMF, who feel they have already been too lenient.
The danger is that
both sides miscalculate and end up with what neither wants, namely Greece
leaving the euro.
Experts believe that
scenario remains unlikely. Privately, European officials in Brussels expect Mr
Tsipras to become more pragmatic if he wins power.
(Πηγή: telegraph.co.uk)
