The ECB made it clear
yesterday that the suspension of Greek sovereign debt as eligible collateral
came because a successful conclusion of the current Greek troika program review
had become impossible.
In the press
conference following his meeting with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble
this morning, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis suggested that Greece
should receive a bridging program until the end of May to allow the new Greek
government time to finalize details of their program proposals.
A short-term bridging
program would not be enough to make the ECB change its mind on collateral
eligibility, but it would give politicians time to come to an agreement on a
longer-term solution for Greece.
All members of the
euro area would have to agree to that bridging program at the next Eurogroup meeting
on Feb. 16 in Brussels.
Ahead of that
Eurogroup meeting, Varoufakis has few allies he can rely on among euro area
finance ministers, with only the French finance minister offering public
support for any new program.
If a bridging program
can be agreed to at the Eurogroup meeting, there will then be some months of
difficult negotiation ahead for Greece and its lenders. With Varoufakis today
saying that he did not even reach an agreement to disagree with Schäuble, all
parties still have a long way to go to reach the necessary common ground for a
sustainable agreement?
Absent that agreement,
Greek banks can continue to rely on ELA funding for the moment. (See an
explainer here for how ELA works)
If there is a complete
breakdown in negotiations, however, it is likely that the ECB will then take
the view that the Greek banks will have become insolvent at that point, due to
their holdings of Greek debt. Were that to happen, Greece would find itself not
enjoying the full benefits of euro membership.
(Πηγή: bloomberg.com)
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