Germany could be Europe's next big problem

This is as good as it gets for Germany and Europe. Previously, it was the debt of the eurozone's peripheral countries that was of concern to the markets. But in an interview with Business Insider, Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman said Europe had a much bigger problem: Germany.

   And at the heart of the looming issue for Germany and Europe is the Italian banking system. Problems in Italian banks will "spill over into the Netherlands," Friedman said. "It's going to spill over into Germany. Germany is the new PIIG. Germany depends on exports, and its markets are drying up."

   The PIIGS economies - Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain - were the main concerns during the European debt crisis of 2011 and 2012. And with those crises seemingly having passed and Europe moving back toward a path to economic stability Germany has been a big winner, with its economy as strong as it has been since reunification and an unemployment rate down to 4.5%.

   Germany has, however, been running a structural trade surplus underpinned by a weak euro, with its trade surplus hitting a record $23.9 billion in June. And Friedman thinks Germany's export well is about to run dry.

Πηγή: Business Insider