WASHINGTON
- Ebola spreading throughout West Africa could cause up to $33 billion in
losses for the region’s economy, the World Bank said Wednesday in a report
warning of deeper damage from the crisis.
The World Bank and International Monetary
Fund have ramped up their financing in recent weeks for the three worst-hit
countries in the region - Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia - as the outbreak
overwhelms their economies. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim has said the
epidemic could cause an economic catastrophe for those nations unless it’s
contained by the end of the year.
The development organization now says the
economic hit could be much broader and deeper than originally thought.
“It is far from certain that the epidemic
will be fully contained by December,” the bank said in the report released
Wednesday. “Over the medium term…both epidemiological and economic contagion in
the broader sub region of West Africa is likely,” it said.
If the virus isn’t contained in the coming
months, Liberia and Sierra Leone would likely be pushed into deep economic
contractions. “The economic impacts are already very serious in the core three
countries - particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone - and could become
catastrophic” under a slow-containment scenario, the bank said.
The outbreak has taken a devastating human
toll on the three fragile African countries. The worst economic damage,
however, has largely been wrought through fear of contagion, not infection
itself. Farmers have abandoned their fields, shop owners have closed their
stores and manufacturers have slashed output.
If the epidemic spreads into the much larger
neighboring economies, the cumulative two-year impact could reach nearly $33
billion by the end of 2015, the bank said. If the outbreak is contained more
quickly, the costs would be around $4 billion for the region. Both Senegal and
Nigeria have shown hope for a quicker containment.
Africa’s sub-Saharan region is one of the
fastest-growing areas in the world. Public investment in infrastructure and
higher agricultural production are expected to boost growth in the region. The
IMF forecasts the collective sub-Saharan economy will grow at a 5.8% clip next
year, up from 5.1% this year.
But, the IMF warned, “Should the Ebola
outbreak become more protracted or spread to more countries, it would have
dramatic consequences for economic activity in the west Africa region.”
The World Bank warned of longer-term effects
not outlined in its report. “This analysis doesn't take into account the
longer-term impacts generated by mortality, failure to treat other health
conditions due to aversion behavior and lack of supply capacity, school
closings and dropouts, and other shocks to livelihoods,” the bank said.
(Πηγή:
online.wsj.com)
