A series of
deadlines are looming that could trigger the country's exit from the euro -
with all the political and financial upheaval that would entail.
Greece in numbers
€320bn - Greece's
debt mountain
€240bn - European
bailout
€56bn -
Greece owes Germany
177% - country's debt-to-GDP ratio
25%
- fall in GDP since 2010
26%
- Greek unemployment rate
Source:
ECB, IMF, Greek National Statistics Agency
Professor Otmar Issing
President,
Centre for Financial Studies at Goethe University Frankfurt; former chief
economist at the European Central Bank (ECB). Prof Otmar Issing says Europe has
done enough for Greece and a line must be drawn. Prof Issing is hawkish on
Greece's culpability and the need for Athens to learn to live within its means.
"There
is no question that Greece is responsible herself for the mess she is in,"
he says. "It started with misguided policies even before the start and
continued over many years."
Simply
writing off Greece's debt would "immediately raise demands by other
countries with high debt", he says, and would be especially difficult for
the ECB and other debtors to swallow, given that banks and other private
investors have already renounced "more than 50% of their claims - the
largest debt relief in history."
Europe has
done more than enough for Greece and a line must be drawn, he believes, even if
this means it has to leave the euro.
While this
would show that "the exchange rate regime is not irreversible", it
would also "be a strong signal that a member country cannot continue
endlessly violating rules and commitments."
Anders Borg
Chair,
World Economic Forum's Global Financial System Initiative; former minister for
finance, Sweden. Anders Borg thinks the Greek government needs to "get
serious".
The Greeks
"are wasting time by fooling around - they need to give Europe access to
their government data and get serious," says Mr Borg.
Part of the
problem has been a lack of mutual trust between European negotiators and the
country's new, inexperienced left-wing Syriza government, he believes.
Once Greece
shows a willingness to continue reforming - including opening up more of its
markets to competition and taxing property more heavily, Europe could soften
its demands on Greece in return, he thinks.
If
negotiations were to fail, then leaving the euro would be a "meltdown
scenario" for Greece, he thinks, resulting in capital controls on the
banks, and even some bank closures, he says. Import prices would "go
through the roof" and investment would "fall through the floor".
For the
rest of Europe, a Grexit would be less serious, so the onus is on Greece to do
more, concludes Mr Borg.
But judging
on their behaviour so far "it's not certain that they want to be
saved," he says.
The ECB, which
has increased emergency liquidity funding for Greek banks to about €77bn, also
thinks the country needs to do more to secure extra funding.
"More
work, much more work is needed now and it's urgent," ECB head Mario Draghi
said in April. "We all want Greece to succeed. The answer is in the hands
of the Greek government."
Deadlines,
deadlines... If Greece can't pay its
bills will it have to leave the eurozone?
- 1 May:
Greece has to pay €200m of loan interest to the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), although it may be given a few days grace owing to the long bank holiday
weekend.
- 8 May:
Greece has to roll over €1.4bn worth of maturing 6-month Treasury bills.
- 11 May:
Crucial meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels - Greece likely to be
high on the agenda.
- 12 May:
Greece due to repay €760m of IMF loan
- 15 May:
Greece has to roll over €1.4bn worth of maturing 3-month Treasury bills.
- End of
May: the country needs to find about €2.5bn to pay salaries and pensions.
- 30 June:
The €240bn bailout agreement between the eurozone and Greece officially
expires.
- June and
July: €6.7bn due to be repaid to the European Central Bank.
(Πηγή: bbc.com)
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