Are the U.K.'s Immigration Statistics Telling the Full Story?

Something is awry with the U.K.’s most hotly debated statistic. Economists including Jonathan Portes say official figures could be underestimating the true scale of immigration, which is at the heart of Prime Minister David Cameron’s attempts to renegotiate Britain’s membership of the European Union.

   Statisticians base their immigration data on a survey of passengers coming into the U.K. and count only those intending to stay for at least a year. In 2014, there were 118,000 such arrivals from the 15 oldest EU members. In the same year, the government issued almost 217,000 national insurance registrations, permitting migrants from those countries to work in the U.K. The gap, which has widened in recent years, is leading some to question whether immigration is far higher than assumed.

   To gain a clearer view, Portes, a research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London, has been urging the government to disclose how many national insurance numbers are still “active,” that is the number of foreigners who have decided to stay in the U.K.

   In blog postings, he cited a letter from Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, in which it said releasing the data would be "unhelpful to the negotiation process" being undertaken by Cameron. The U.K. tax authority said Thursday it would release the information when it is properly collated early in the new year.

Πηγή: bloomberg.com